With a muted residential pre-sales backdrop, ORL is utilizing surplus cash flows to build robust lease asset portfolio. Work has started on Oberoi Borivali/Worli mall and Worli Office/Commerz III. Whilst in initial stages of construction and leasing, the rental potential of the ORL portfolio is expected to increase from Rs 3.3bn to Rs 15-18bn over next 3yrs. This shall then become REIT able and unlock value for shareholders. Residential projects sales velocity has been muted except for Borivali project, which is seeing strong demand due to lack of large gated project in the micro market. Mulund is seeing strong over supply with stressed projects being taken over by credible real estate players like L&T/Prestige Estate. ORL is building out affordable luxury product in Thane which shall augur well for volumes recovery/pre-sales velocity. We maintain NEU. Key risks (1) Approvals delays; (2) Continuation of weak underlying demand and (3) Delays in pre-lease tie up of under construction lease portfolio. ORL reported Revenue miss of 5% while EBITDA/PAT beat came in at 3.7%/4.1%. Pre-sales remain sluggish despite new inventory being opened up. Lease assets are shaping up on ground, we incorporate Borivali mall in our valuation. We maintain NEU with SOTP-based TP of Rs 573/sh (vs. Rs 539/sh earlier). We have reduced our FY20/FY21E EPS estimates by 50.6%/18.6%.
Voltas is winning through better product range across the pyramid i.e. mass (window), mass premium (fixed speed and inverter) and premium (7 star products for EESL). This is in contrast with peers who have migrated towards inverters and 5-star products. Low channel inventory drives visibility for healthy growth in the coming quarters. While, RAC supply issue from China will remain overhang in the near term. Gradual recovery in EMPS can be a catalyst to improve overall performance in FY21. Voltas delivered another strong show in its UCP business while lumpiness in EMPS dragged the overall performance. UCP rev/EBIT growth at 14/36% with market share gain was heartening. Voltas has been able to manage rising competition better than its peers. EMPS rev/EBIT was down by 8/46% on account of slow execution (liquidity crisis impacting visibility of payments). While strong order book (40% YoY) gives visibility of ramp up in project business in 1HFY21. We cut EPS estimate by ~5% to factor-in delayed recovery in EMPS. We value Voltas on SOTP basis, EMPS/EPS/UCP at 17/20/35x on Dec-21 EPS and Volt-Beko at 1x P/S, translating to a TP of Rs 724. Maintain BUY.
NIACL is India's largest insurer but continues to make high underwriting losses (9MFY20 COR: 115.8%). We also note company's competitive positioning is only weakening and thus we remain concerned of company's ability of write high quality (profitable) business in the near future. We estimate an FY22E adj. RoE of just 7.1%, and can at best assign a valuation of just 0.65x Dec-21E ABV (less 5% discount for expected 10.4% supply). We rate NIACL a SELL with a higher TP of Rs 130. Driven by a 1,230bps improvement in claims ratio, NIACL reported a better than expected adj. COR of 115.7% (-1,150bps YoY). NEP grew 11.7/4.9% YoY/QoQ to Rs 61.8bn. High investment income (Rs 22.3bn, +65.1% YoY) and low tax rate (17.3%) ensured a high APAT of Rs 10.7bn (vs. -1.1bn in 3QFY19). Post tax one-offs on account of provisioning for gratuity and pension dented profits by Rs 5.8bn to an RPAT of Rs 4.9bn. We retain a SELL with a higher TP of Rs 130.
Sluggishness in its home state and a conscious effort to focus on less risky (low ticket LAP) and salaried home loans, and no major branch addition plans will curtail growth, in spite of REPCO's small base and healthy CRAR. Inexpensive valuations underpin our stance. Even the ascription of a measly 1.3x multiple, yields a considerable upside. REPCOs 3Q was in line with estimates as growth slowed (9%) and NIMs expanded (+30bps QoQ). Asset quality was stable QoQ. Maintain BUY with a TP of Rs 422 (1.3x Dec-21E ABV).
We increase our TP to Rs 595 based on 9x (~18% discount to 5Y average) FY22E EPS plus Rs 31/sh for residual 4.7% stake in Majesco US. Mastek announced the acquisition of Evosys in a two step transaction, which involves cash payout of USD 65mn and dilution of 17.5% in Mastek Ltd. The deal is valued at EV/EBITDA of 9.2x and P/E of 11.2x based on FY19 financials and 70% economic interest. The deal is EPS accretive and will boost FY21/22E EPS by 11.8/14.1% respectively. Post the traction, Evosys promoters will hold 15% in Mastek Ltd and 30% CCPS in TAISTech, converted to equity based on targets over the next three years. This is a complex traction but involves value unlocking and diversification of revenue. Risk involves higher dependence on Oracle and multi geography footprint, which the company has not handled before.
While KEC T&D and Railways segment continue to drive revenues, civil segment has de-grown 21% YoY on back of overall weak outlook. Cable segment revenue de-grew 20% YoY on the back of correction in commodity prices given that it operates on a cost plus model. New order inflow has been below expectation resulting in guidance downgrade. Green Energy Corridor and SEB ordering are expected to drive T&D ordering with PGCIL capex and ordering not expected to significantly ramp-up over the medium term. KEC is trying to diversify beyond T&D segment through ramp-up in order inflows from Railways and Metro for both electrification and civil work. With MENA, far-east, Malaysia and Mexico expected to drive international order, an uptick in inflow from these regions remains a key re-rating trigger. Key risks (1) Adverse currency/commodity movement, (2) Further delays in capex recovery, (3) Slowdown in government T&D capex and (4) Further NWC deterioration. We maintain BUY on KEC International Ltd. (KEC) with a revised TP of Rs 390/sh (vs Rs 369/sh earlier) valuing the stock at 14x FY21EPS. Though execution continues to be in-line with expectation, headwinds remain on new order inflows from domestic T&D; segment. PGCIL order awards are expected to remain muted over the medium term and diversification beyond T&D; segments shall drive new order inflow.
Buoyed by the response to the promotional campaign at Life Republic, KPDL recorded robust pre-sales enabling the company to stay on track for its pre-sales target for FY20E. Though lack of new launches during 2HFY20 is a dampener, KPDL has a strong launch pipeline across Mumbai and Pune for FY21E with 3 commercial projects slated for launch in Pune. Mumbai and Bengaluru continue to be key markets for the company outside of its home base. We derive comfort from large part of KPDL portfolio being affordable and mid-income segment. We remain constructive and maintain BUY. Key monitorables: (1) Aggressive competition in home market, (2) Leverage position. KPDL financial performance under POCM was ahead of our estimates. Pre sales picked up in 3QFY20 after a weak 2QFY20. Stable collections and Net D/E within acceptable limits are other key positives. Maintain BUY with revised TP of Rs 310/sh.
We believe we may be at the fag-end of top-line/WC pressure as MBO rationalization is nearly over. Margins are also set to improve FY21 onwards as TCNS 1. smartly re-negotiates rent bills and 2. Low base effect. While we cut our EBITDA estimates by 3-4% to factor in higher cost of retailing, we roll-forward our DCF to FY22 and hence, maintain our TP of Rs. 670/sh, implying 18x EV/EBITDA. Reiterate BUY. TCNS continues to reel under the pain of 1. Heightened competitive intensity as 1. Peers step up liquidation/promotion to reduce their working capital pangs (Per channel checks), 2. MBO sales continue to dip, 3. Selling & Distribution (S&D;) increases cost of retailing. However, we believe the worst may be behind the category leader as MBO rationalization is nearly over and product lines are getting better. The company has been adding relevant categories (Drape/bottom-wear) via brand Elleven and Footwear to better round its portfolio of offerings for women.
Strong focus on retail and a shift to the 12 season model is likely to help improve assortment freshness footfall enabler; ergo sustain growth momentum across anchor formats. We continue to prefer strong Brands and value fashion plays and ABFRL is well placed to milk both categories. We revise our DCF-based TP to Rs. 290/sh (earlier Rs. 250). Revision is a function of 1. Revision in our EBITDA estimates (1.5-2%) for FY21/22 respectively and 2. DCF-roll-over to FY22. ABFRL's revenue grew 12.3% YoY to Rs. 25.6bn (3.5% above estimated Rs. 24.76bn) as both anchors - Madura and Pantaloons performed well and beat expectations. Adj. EBITDA margins (Pre-IND-AS) stood at 8.4% (vs est: 7.1%). The beat was a function of 1. GM trickle down effect, 2. Improved profitability in Pantaloons and 2. Reducing losses in the fast fashion biz. The company reported losses for the quarter (Rs. Rs. 334mn) primarily due to a higher tax outgo (courtesy a one-time deferred tax charge of Rs. Rs. 1.43bn)
While execution remains top-notch, Trent seems priced to perfection with little on the table for investors at 33x FY22 EV/EBITDA. That said, we revise EBITDA estimates upwards by 4-5% for FY21/22 primarily to factor in lower cost of retailing. This coupled with our DCF roll-over for standalone biz and Zara to FY22 bumps up our SOTP-based TP to Rs. 580/sh (earlier Rs. 490). We bake in 28/30/41% revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR and a 440bp improvement in RoIC (ex-investments in JVs/subsidiaries over FY19-22E. Maintain NEUTRAL. Westsides clockwork-like growth continues. Trents flagship format grew 22% YoY in 9MFY20. SSSG came in at 12% - healthiest within our retail universe. We estimate Zudio to have more than doubled top-line over 9MFY20, however, we suspect productivity may have dipped. Gross margin continues to dip as 1. Zudios skew increases in the revenue mix. Share in JV/associate losses have increased over 9MFY20. While the Westside format remains a winner in terms of unit store economics; the same for Zudio is yet to be tested in catchments without a corresponding Westside store as currently the former piggybacks on the supply chain of Westside.
